Mill draftable in M11? - Demonic Tutor2024-03-28T21:33:42Zhttp://demonictutor.ning.com/forum/topics/mill-draftable-in-m11?commentId=3440403%3AComment%3A16941&xg_source=activity&feed=yes&xn_auth=noBurning Enquiry is interestin…tag:demonictutor.ning.com,2010-06-11:3440403:Comment:169492010-06-11T11:59:21.143ZThomas David Bakerhttp://demonictutor.ning.com/profile/ThomasDavidBaker
Burning Enquiry is interesting.<br />
<br />
It mills for 3, or 6 with an Erasure out. So its value depends on that. Can we give it a value of 2 (4 / 2 for chance of seeing it)?<br />
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2.4E + 2.4T + 2.4B = ~22<br />
<br />
Getting there!<br />
<br />
Diabolic Tutor is a bad Erasure or a just-as-good Tome Scour but you'd only expect 0.8 of one in a draft as it is an Uncommon. Plus it puts you in a third color. There's also Sign in Blood if you are going B but that seems pretty desperate.
Burning Enquiry is interesting.<br />
<br />
It mills for 3, or 6 with an Erasure out. So its value depends on that. Can we give it a value of 2 (4 / 2 for chance of seeing it)?<br />
<br />
2.4E + 2.4T + 2.4B = ~22<br />
<br />
Getting there!<br />
<br />
Diabolic Tutor is a bad Erasure or a just-as-good Tome Scour but you'd only expect 0.8 of one in a draft as it is an Uncommon. Plus it puts you in a third color. There's also Sign in Blood if you are going B but that seems pretty desperate. Yea, i had a Traumatize, Diab…tag:demonictutor.ning.com,2010-06-11:3440403:Comment:169432010-06-11T11:35:27.598ZDan Barretthttp://demonictutor.ning.com/profile/DanBarrett
Yea, i had a Traumatize, Diabolic Tutor, 4 Tome Scours in that deck i think.<br />
<br />
<cite>Louis Mackie said:</cite><blockquote cite="http://demonictutor.ning.com/forum/topics/mill-draftable-in-m11?commentId=3440403%3AComment%3A16941&xg_source=activity#3440403Comment16941"><div>Get lucky with a Traumatize? (Not confirmed but fits the number crunch).</div>
</blockquote>
Yea, i had a Traumatize, Diabolic Tutor, 4 Tome Scours in that deck i think.<br />
<br />
<cite>Louis Mackie said:</cite><blockquote cite="http://demonictutor.ning.com/forum/topics/mill-draftable-in-m11?commentId=3440403%3AComment%3A16941&xg_source=activity#3440403Comment16941"><div>Get lucky with a Traumatize? (Not confirmed but fits the number crunch).</div>
</blockquote> Get lucky with a Traumatize?…tag:demonictutor.ning.com,2010-06-11:3440403:Comment:169412010-06-11T11:25:25.773ZLouis Mackiehttp://demonictutor.ning.com/profile/LouisMackie
Get lucky with a Traumatize? (Not confirmed but fits the number crunch).
Get lucky with a Traumatize? (Not confirmed but fits the number crunch). Ever so often you'll end up o…tag:demonictutor.ning.com,2010-06-11:3440403:Comment:169332010-06-11T09:22:44.804ZDan Barretthttp://demonictutor.ning.com/profile/DanBarrett
Ever so often you'll end up opening boosters with the same print run and get 4-6 Tome Scour's and Burning Enquiry's (actually the best card to pair with erasure, as it will mill 6 for R).<br />
<br />
Some of you might remember me doing this at GP Brighton side events last year:<br />
<br />
Oli Ruel - "You are very funny man"<br />
<br />
James Mills - "What are you doing?! There's an actually half-decent deck in your sideboard!"
Ever so often you'll end up opening boosters with the same print run and get 4-6 Tome Scour's and Burning Enquiry's (actually the best card to pair with erasure, as it will mill 6 for R).<br />
<br />
Some of you might remember me doing this at GP Brighton side events last year:<br />
<br />
Oli Ruel - "You are very funny man"<br />
<br />
James Mills - "What are you doing?! There's an actually half-decent deck in your sideboard!" Let's drastically oversimplif…tag:demonictutor.ning.com,2010-06-11:3440403:Comment:169222010-06-11T05:09:02.559ZThomas David Bakerhttp://demonictutor.ning.com/profile/ThomasDavidBaker
Let's drastically oversimplify and work out how do-able this is. Feel free to correct my maths if it goes awry.<br />
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Let's say your other cards mean you can make the game go 13 turns without dying and/or you draft draw spells that get your more cards sooner.<br />
<br />
Either way you're going to see half of your deck before you die and you're going to be drawing 13 times.<br />
<br />
(This seems really ambitious to me but let's go with it.)<br />
<br />
Your opponent is going to draw approximately half their deck so you need to…
Let's drastically oversimplify and work out how do-able this is. Feel free to correct my maths if it goes awry.<br />
<br />
Let's say your other cards mean you can make the game go 13 turns without dying and/or you draft draw spells that get your more cards sooner.<br />
<br />
Either way you're going to see half of your deck before you die and you're going to be drawing 13 times.<br />
<br />
(This seems really ambitious to me but let's go with it.)<br />
<br />
Your opponent is going to draw approximately half their deck so you need to mill around 20 to win.<br />
<br />
An Erasure in your opening hand or first one or two draw steps (depending on if you are on the play) will mill for 11:<br />
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9 * 11 = 99<br />
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Erasures drawn later mill for correspondingly less:<br />
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(10^2 + 10) / 2 = 55<br />
<br />
An Erasure you don't draw mills for 0:<br />
<br />
20 * 0 = 0<br />
<br />
154 / 40 = ~4<br />
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So each Erasure you draft is worth slightly less than 4 cards of mill.<br />
<br />
Each Tome Scour you draft is worth 2.5 cards of mill (50% chance of seeing it, mills for 5).<br />
<br />
So when:<br />
<br />
4E + 2.5T = 20<br />
<br />
the deck is viable(ish).<br />
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Both cards are commons. Let's assume no one else in the draft wants them and you can hoover them all up.<br />
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There are 240 commons in a draft and 100 commons in M11.<br />
<br />
So there should be 2.4 of each card in a draft.<br />
<br />
2.4E + 2.4T = ~17<br />
<br />
So it seems ropey.<br />
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Assuming you open a booster P1P1 with two mill cards in it (1.76 more mill cards than you would expect to see) and table the second one then you are looking at ~22 "points" of mill in the draft and it becomes "possible". You could take any Sign In Bloods you see, too, although the fogs are in W and G.<br />
<br />
Conclusion: this strategy is absolutely terrible but could just work in some drafts. You should probably mulligan looking for an Erasure.